Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Noble Development Public Company Limited (NOBLE-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.56 - $4.90$4.23
Multi-Stage$11.36 - $12.59$11.96
Blended Fair Value$8.10
Current Price$2.18
Upside271.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-36.91%14.96%0.400.280.080.841.083.980.060.000.000.03
YoY Growth--43.42%251.25%-90.59%-22.73%-72.73%7,017.07%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-66.66%
Dividend Yield--18.57%7.45%1.56%16.60%12.76%100.18%1.24%0.00%0.00%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)946.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)258.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)688.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)189.36118.3571.01
Cash Retained (M)688.01688.01688.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-189.36-118.35-71.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)498.64569.65617.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,388.671,388.671,388.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.410.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.410.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-7.92%-6.92%-5.92%
Fair Value$3.56$4.23$4.90
Upside / Downside63.25%94.26%124.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)946.82881.32820.35763.60710.78661.61681.46
Payout Ratio27.34%39.87%52.40%64.93%77.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)258.82351.37429.88495.84550.62595.45630.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-7.92%-6.92%-5.92%
Year 1 PV (M)327.32330.87334.42
Year 2 PV (M)373.04381.18389.42
Year 3 PV (M)400.82414.03427.51
Year 4 PV (M)414.64432.95451.85
Year 5 PV (M)417.70440.88465.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,839.5014,607.4815,409.17
Equity Value (M)15,773.0216,607.3817,477.46
Shares Outstanding (M)1,388.671,388.671,388.67
Fair Value$11.36$11.96$12.59
Upside / Downside421.02%448.59%477.33%

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