Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NewtekOne, Inc. 8.00% Fixed Rate Senior Notes due 2028 (NEWTI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$314.20 - $463.13$434.02
Multi-Stage$77.02 - $84.31$80.60
Blended Fair Value$257.31
Current Price$25.10
Upside925.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-59.56%0.00%0.020.562.532.751.671.601.271.111.070.59
YoY Growth---96.88%-78.08%-7.98%64.72%4.45%25.70%15.02%3.29%80.66%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.07%2.22%10.30%11.19%6.80%6.51%5.18%4.50%4.36%2.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.867.414.45
Cash Retained (M)34.2534.2534.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.86-7.41-4.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.3926.8429.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.4625.4625.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.051.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.051.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.862.042.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.13%6.13%6.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$314.20$434.02$463.13
Upside / Downside1,151.80%1,629.16%1,745.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.3063.1567.2571.6376.2881.2483.68
Payout Ratio42.24%51.79%61.35%70.90%80.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.0532.7141.2650.7861.3773.1277.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.13%6.13%6.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.5330.8231.11
Year 2 PV (M)35.9536.6337.32
Year 3 PV (M)41.3042.4943.69
Year 4 PV (M)46.5948.3850.22
Year 5 PV (M)51.8154.3156.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,754.831,839.591,927.59
Equity Value (M)1,961.002,052.222,146.85
Shares Outstanding (M)25.4625.4625.46
Fair Value$77.02$80.60$84.31
Upside / Downside206.84%221.11%235.92%

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