Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NewtekOne, Inc. 8.50% Fixed Rate Senior Notes due 2029 (NEWTG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$383.04 - $451.29$422.92
Multi-Stage$78.99 - $86.48$82.67
Blended Fair Value$252.80
Current Price$25.08
Upside907.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-59.56%0.00%0.020.542.472.681.631.561.241.081.040.58
YoY Growth---96.88%-78.08%-7.98%64.72%4.45%25.70%15.02%3.29%80.66%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.07%2.24%10.23%11.12%6.75%6.46%5.14%4.47%4.33%2.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.867.414.45
Cash Retained (M)33.1233.1233.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.86-7.41-4.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.2725.7128.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.1326.1326.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.981.10
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.981.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.821.992.10
WACC / Discount Rate5.98%5.98%5.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$383.04$422.92$451.29
Upside / Downside1,427.28%1,586.30%1,699.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.3063.1567.2571.6376.2881.2483.68
Payout Ratio44.14%53.31%62.48%71.65%80.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.1733.6642.0251.3261.6673.1277.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.98%5.98%5.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.4731.7732.06
Year 2 PV (M)36.7237.4138.12
Year 3 PV (M)41.9243.1244.34
Year 4 PV (M)47.0748.8850.74
Year 5 PV (M)52.1754.6957.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,854.641,944.222,037.23
Equity Value (M)2,063.982,160.092,259.81
Shares Outstanding (M)26.1326.1326.13
Fair Value$78.99$82.67$86.48
Upside / Downside214.95%229.61%244.83%

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