Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (NCKL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,718.86 - $6,581.84$4,038.43
Multi-Stage$1,925.76 - $2,102.83$2,012.69
Blended Fair Value$3,025.56
Current Price$1,190.00
Upside154.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS67.71%0.00%26.4950.218.2615.020.002.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---47.24%507.68%-45.01%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.84%5.67%0.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,987,289.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,367,057.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,620,232.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,597,457.80998,411.13599,046.68
Cash Retained (M)5,620,232.005,620,232.005,620,232.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,597,457.80-998,411.13-599,046.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,022,774.204,621,820.885,021,185.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)63,637.1663,637.1663,637.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share63.2172.6378.90
LTM Dividend per Share37.2037.2037.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share63.2172.6378.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.41109.82116.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,718.86$4,038.43$6,581.84
Upside / Downside128.48%239.36%453.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,987,289.008,506,462.799,059,382.879,648,242.7510,275,378.5310,943,278.1411,271,576.48
Payout Ratio29.64%41.71%53.78%65.85%77.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,367,057.003,547,895.874,872,242.976,353,765.338,007,300.389,848,950.3210,426,208.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,212,708.763,243,160.983,273,613.19
Year 2 PV (M)3,995,120.874,071,216.704,148,030.42
Year 3 PV (M)4,717,725.304,853,154.244,991,150.48
Year 4 PV (M)5,383,789.775,590,835.135,803,795.63
Year 5 PV (M)5,996,425.086,286,054.666,586,769.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)99,244,108.40104,037,635.95109,014,623.08
Equity Value (M)122,549,878.19128,082,057.66133,817,981.84
Shares Outstanding (M)63,637.1663,637.1663,637.16
Fair Value$1,925.76$2,012.69$2,102.83
Upside / Downside61.83%69.13%76.71%

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