Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.04 - $160.23$99.16
Multi-Stage$58.64 - $64.10$61.32
Blended Fair Value$80.24
Current Price$41.76
Upside92.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.24%5.37%1.321.181.051.011.000.970.920.850.820.81
YoY Growth--11.41%12.30%4.25%1.12%2.60%6.33%7.89%3.15%1.92%3.37%
Dividend Yield--3.07%3.29%3.13%2.80%2.51%3.01%2.51%2.39%2.22%3.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)149.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.9518.7211.23
Cash Retained (M)80.4180.4180.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.95-18.72-11.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.4661.6969.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)47.2147.2147.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.071.311.47
LTM Dividend per Share1.471.471.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.071.311.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.542.782.93
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate4.24%5.24%6.24%
Fair Value$67.04$99.16$160.23
Upside / Downside60.53%137.46%283.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)149.73157.57165.82174.51183.65193.26199.06
Payout Ratio46.30%55.04%63.78%72.52%81.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.3286.72105.76126.55149.23173.94184.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate4.24%5.24%6.24%
Year 1 PV (M)79.4080.1680.93
Year 2 PV (M)88.6690.3792.09
Year 3 PV (M)97.1399.95102.83
Year 4 PV (M)104.87108.95113.15
Year 5 PV (M)111.91117.39123.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,286.152,397.942,514.05
Equity Value (M)2,768.132,894.763,026.12
Shares Outstanding (M)47.2147.2147.21
Fair Value$58.64$61.32$64.10
Upside / Downside40.41%46.84%53.50%

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