Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Muang Thai Insurance Public Company Limited (MTI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.05 - $641.75$233.51
Multi-Stage$68.53 - $74.88$71.65
Blended Fair Value$152.58
Current Price$17.80
Upside757.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.13%-0.47%0.911.120.950.820.530.510.780.781.151.05
YoY Growth---19.11%18.85%15.30%55.52%2.84%-34.42%0.00%-31.75%8.62%10.69%
Dividend Yield--8.57%10.26%8.37%7.16%6.28%7.43%8.54%5.95%8.71%7.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,047.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)471.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)575.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)209.42130.8978.53
Cash Retained (M)575.21575.21575.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-209.42-130.89-78.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)365.78444.32496.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)324.50324.50324.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.131.371.53
LTM Dividend per Share1.451.451.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.131.371.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.582.822.98
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$119.05$233.51$641.75
Upside / Downside568.80%1,211.88%3,505.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,047.121,115.191,187.671,264.871,347.091,434.651,477.69
Payout Ratio45.07%54.05%63.04%72.03%81.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)471.92602.81748.72911.051,091.321,291.181,366.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)554.00559.25564.50
Year 2 PV (M)632.39644.43656.59
Year 3 PV (M)707.20727.50748.19
Year 4 PV (M)778.55808.49839.29
Year 5 PV (M)846.56887.45929.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,718.1019,622.1920,560.88
Equity Value (M)22,236.8023,249.3224,299.35
Shares Outstanding (M)324.50324.50324.50
Fair Value$68.53$71.65$74.88
Upside / Downside284.98%302.51%320.69%

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