Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.14 - $27.93$24.05
Multi-Stage$44.07 - $48.33$46.16
Blended Fair Value$35.10
Current Price$90.23
Upside-61.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-15.65%-3.97%3.393.353.162.992.997.952.612.241.831.89
YoY Growth--1.27%5.98%5.58%0.05%-62.33%204.83%16.17%22.71%-3.37%-62.78%
Dividend Yield--3.76%3.90%3.20%3.50%3.68%9.14%3.55%2.53%2.02%2.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)199.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)189.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.8724.9214.95
Cash Retained (M)9.689.689.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.87-24.92-14.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)-30.19-15.24-5.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.8955.8955.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.54-0.27-0.09
LTM Dividend per Share3.393.393.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.54-0.27-0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.853.123.30
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate-5.10%-4.10%-3.10%
Fair Value$20.14$24.05$27.93
Upside / Downside-77.68%-73.35%-69.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)199.33191.15183.31175.79168.57161.66166.51
Payout Ratio95.14%94.12%93.09%92.06%91.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)189.65179.90170.64161.83153.45145.49154.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate-5.10%-4.10%-3.10%
Year 1 PV (M)164.32166.05167.79
Year 2 PV (M)142.36145.38148.42
Year 3 PV (M)123.32127.26131.28
Year 4 PV (M)106.81111.38116.10
Year 5 PV (M)92.5097.48102.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,833.771,932.452,035.33
Equity Value (M)2,463.082,580.002,701.59
Shares Outstanding (M)55.8955.8955.89
Fair Value$44.07$46.16$48.33
Upside / Downside-51.16%-48.84%-46.43%

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