Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Morningstar, Inc. (MORN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Data & Stock ExchangesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$202.19 - $525.47$307.22
Multi-Stage$138.53 - $151.38$144.84
Blended Fair Value$226.03
Current Price$232.01
Upside-2.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.71%8.55%1.621.491.431.261.201.110.990.920.880.79
YoY Growth--8.45%3.90%13.47%5.45%7.53%12.21%8.40%3.69%12.46%10.50%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.49%0.71%0.46%0.53%0.96%0.77%0.96%1.12%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)376.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)300.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.2047.0028.20
Cash Retained (M)300.70300.70300.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.20-47.00-28.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)225.50253.70272.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.9042.9042.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.265.916.35
LTM Dividend per Share1.761.761.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.265.916.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.017.678.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$202.19$307.22$525.47
Upside / Downside-12.85%32.41%126.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)376.00400.44426.47454.19483.71515.15530.61
Payout Ratio20.03%34.02%48.02%62.01%76.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.30136.23204.77281.65367.65463.64490.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)123.63124.80125.98
Year 2 PV (M)168.64171.85175.10
Year 3 PV (M)210.49216.54222.69
Year 4 PV (M)249.35258.94268.80
Year 5 PV (M)285.37299.15313.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,905.265,142.185,388.18
Equity Value (M)5,942.746,213.476,494.21
Shares Outstanding (M)42.9042.9042.90
Fair Value$138.53$144.84$151.38
Upside / Downside-40.29%-37.57%-34.75%

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