Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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MOL Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari Nyilvánosan Muködo Részvénytársaság (MOL.BD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24,542.22 - $72,835.10$68,257.15
Multi-Stage$10,249.42 - $11,199.20$10,715.66
Blended Fair Value$39,486.41
Current Price$2,698.00
Upside1,363.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.86%14.65%258.04303.71253.0978.620.00129.10114.1269.7063.2655.80
YoY Growth---15.03%20.00%221.92%5,940,300.00%-100.00%13.13%63.74%10.18%13.37%-15.13%
Dividend Yield--8.81%10.25%9.87%2.68%0.00%6.69%3.44%2.51%2.56%2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)276,734.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215,061.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)61,673.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55,346.8034,591.7520,755.05
Cash Retained (M)61,673.0061,673.0061,673.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-55,346.80-34,591.75-20,755.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,326.2027,081.2540,917.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)755.62755.62755.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.3735.8454.15
LTM Dividend per Share284.62284.62284.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.3735.8454.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend292.99320.46338.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24,542.22$68,257.15$72,835.10
Upside / Downside809.64%2,429.92%2,599.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)276,734.00294,721.71313,878.62334,280.73356,008.98379,149.56390,524.05
Payout Ratio77.71%80.17%82.63%85.09%87.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215,061.00236,281.88259,352.84284,424.74311,660.21341,234.61361,234.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)219,243.56221,321.70223,399.84
Year 2 PV (M)223,297.50227,550.69231,844.01
Year 3 PV (M)227,225.28233,748.10240,394.57
Year 4 PV (M)231,029.30239,914.04249,052.60
Year 5 PV (M)234,711.95246,048.63257,819.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,609,134.226,928,357.877,259,798.97
Equity Value (M)7,744,641.818,096,941.038,462,309.17
Shares Outstanding (M)755.62755.62755.62
Fair Value$10,249.42$10,715.66$11,199.20
Upside / Downside279.89%297.17%315.09%

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