Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. 9.500% Senior Notes due 2029 (MITN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - MortgageSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.24 - $25.56$20.51
Multi-Stage$41.15 - $45.27$43.17
Blended Fair Value$31.84
Current Price$25.36
Upside25.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%1.241.191.260.991.180.002.292.212.230.00
YoY Growth--3.94%-5.25%27.49%-16.04%0.00%-100.00%3.48%-0.55%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.95%4.72%5.01%3.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.936.213.72
Cash Retained (M)11.9711.9711.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.93-6.21-3.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.045.768.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.0030.0030.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.190.27
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.190.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate5.99%5.99%5.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$16.24$20.51$25.56
Upside / Downside-35.96%-19.12%0.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.6749.1748.6848.1947.7147.2348.65
Payout Ratio75.90%78.72%81.54%84.36%87.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.7038.7139.6940.6541.5942.5145.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.99%5.99%5.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)36.1536.5236.89
Year 2 PV (M)34.6235.3336.05
Year 3 PV (M)33.1234.1435.19
Year 4 PV (M)31.6432.9634.31
Year 5 PV (M)30.2031.7833.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,068.741,124.391,182.34
Equity Value (M)1,234.481,295.121,358.18
Shares Outstanding (M)30.0030.0030.00
Fair Value$41.15$43.17$45.27
Upside / Downside62.27%70.24%78.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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