Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Mercury General Corporation (MCY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$220.75 - $782.49$365.89
Multi-Stage$179.62 - $196.85$188.08
Blended Fair Value$276.98
Current Price$67.34
Upside311.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.75%-6.35%1.271.271.902.532.522.512.502.492.482.46
YoY Growth--0.01%-33.33%-24.78%0.42%0.41%0.43%0.43%0.50%0.60%0.66%
Dividend Yield--2.27%2.42%6.00%4.60%4.15%6.17%4.96%5.43%4.06%4.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)439.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)369.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.9254.9532.97
Cash Retained (M)369.27369.27369.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.92-54.95-32.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)281.35314.32336.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.3955.3955.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.085.676.07
LTM Dividend per Share1.271.271.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.085.676.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.356.947.34
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Fair Value$220.75$365.89$782.49
Upside / Downside227.82%443.34%1,062.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)439.62462.30486.15511.24537.62565.36582.32
Payout Ratio16.00%30.80%45.60%60.40%75.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.34142.39221.69308.79404.29508.83538.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Year 1 PV (M)131.62132.88134.15
Year 2 PV (M)189.41193.07196.76
Year 3 PV (M)243.87250.97258.19
Year 4 PV (M)295.14306.64318.47
Year 5 PV (M)343.35360.15377.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,745.479,173.429,617.96
Equity Value (M)9,948.8710,417.1310,903.13
Shares Outstanding (M)55.3955.3955.39
Fair Value$179.62$188.08$196.85
Upside / Downside166.74%179.30%192.33%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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