Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mashreqbank PSC (MASQ.AE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,221.31 - $8,031.86$7,041.06
Multi-Stage$1,031.94 - $1,128.22$1,079.20
Blended Fair Value$4,060.13
Current Price$240.00
Upside1,591.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS39.44%0.00%18.479.071.150.163.503.503.593.593.590.00
YoY Growth--103.65%687.56%611.15%-95.38%0.00%-2.29%-0.12%0.12%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.00%5.24%0.96%0.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,185.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,297.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,887.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,637.071,023.17613.90
Cash Retained (M)3,887.403,887.403,887.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,637.07-1,023.17-613.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,250.332,864.233,273.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.68202.68202.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.1014.1316.15
LTM Dividend per Share21.2121.2121.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.1014.1316.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend32.3135.3437.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,221.31$7,041.06$8,031.86
Upside / Downside825.54%2,833.78%3,246.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,185.378,717.429,284.059,887.5110,530.2011,214.6611,551.10
Payout Ratio52.51%60.01%67.50%75.00%82.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,297.975,231.006,267.177,415.958,687.5810,093.2010,684.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,841.324,887.214,933.10
Year 2 PV (M)5,368.215,470.465,573.68
Year 3 PV (M)5,879.006,047.776,219.73
Year 4 PV (M)6,374.046,619.176,871.30
Year 5 PV (M)6,853.687,184.727,528.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)179,833.13188,519.14197,537.58
Equity Value (M)209,149.40218,728.47228,663.81
Shares Outstanding (M)202.68202.68202.68
Fair Value$1,031.94$1,079.20$1,128.22
Upside / Downside329.97%349.67%370.09%

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