Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ticker

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MAG Silver Corp. (MAG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SilverSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.52 - $9.23$7.86
Multi-Stage$10.02 - $10.99$10.49
Blended Fair Value$9.18
Current Price$21.13
Upside-56.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.8013.007.80
Cash Retained (M)64.6964.6964.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.80-13.00-7.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.8951.6956.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)104.40104.40104.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.500.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.500.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.52$7.86$9.23
Upside / Downside-69.15%-62.81%-56.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.01102.97101.94100.9299.9198.91101.88
Payout Ratio37.80%48.24%58.68%69.12%79.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.3249.6759.8269.7679.4989.0294.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)44.7145.1645.62
Year 2 PV (M)48.4649.4550.46
Year 3 PV (M)50.8652.4454.04
Year 4 PV (M)52.1754.3356.56
Year 5 PV (M)52.5855.3258.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)797.30838.82882.05
Equity Value (M)1,046.081,095.521,146.90
Shares Outstanding (M)104.40104.40104.40
Fair Value$10.02$10.49$10.99
Upside / Downside-52.58%-50.34%-48.01%

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