Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Matahari Department Store Tbk (LPPF.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,669.56 - $3,910.60$3,267.61
Multi-Stage$7,604.76 - $8,375.94$7,982.65
Blended Fair Value$5,625.13
Current Price$1,615.00
Upside248.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.51%-0.18%200.78527.03264.95113.260.00414.83593.16628.30554.00378.33
YoY Growth---61.90%98.92%133.94%0.00%-100.00%-30.06%-5.59%13.41%46.44%85.03%
Dividend Yield--10.43%29.69%5.37%1.83%0.00%31.07%14.76%5.74%4.20%2.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)806,534.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)668,184.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)138,350.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)161,306.80100,816.7560,490.05
Cash Retained (M)138,350.00138,350.00138,350.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-161,306.80-100,816.75-60,490.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)-22,956.8037,533.2577,859.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,250.572,250.572,250.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share-10.2016.6834.60
LTM Dividend per Share296.90296.90296.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share-10.2016.6834.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend286.70313.57331.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-4.12%-3.12%-2.12%
Fair Value$2,669.56$3,267.61$3,910.60
Upside / Downside65.30%102.33%142.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)806,534.00781,393.34757,036.35733,438.60710,576.41688,426.87709,079.68
Payout Ratio82.85%84.28%85.71%87.14%88.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)668,184.00658,535.51648,839.29639,107.69629,352.34619,584.18655,898.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-4.12%-3.12%-2.12%
Year 1 PV (M)613,804.23620,205.84626,607.44
Year 2 PV (M)563,687.63575,506.78587,448.56
Year 3 PV (M)517,518.76533,880.44550,583.39
Year 4 PV (M)475,003.26495,131.40515,892.56
Year 5 PV (M)435,866.75459,074.95483,261.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,509,157.7715,281,713.5416,086,832.82
Equity Value (M)17,115,038.4117,965,512.9518,850,626.15
Shares Outstanding (M)2,250.572,250.572,250.57
Fair Value$7,604.76$7,982.65$8,375.94
Upside / Downside370.88%394.28%418.63%

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