Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lakeland Financial Corporation (LKFN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.71 - $752.68$238.03
Multi-Stage$77.59 - $84.75$81.11
Blended Fair Value$159.57
Current Price$64.20
Upside148.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.70%13.78%1.911.831.581.341.181.150.980.830.710.61
YoY Growth--4.64%15.32%17.89%13.33%3.13%17.25%18.14%17.56%15.95%15.80%
Dividend Yield--3.21%2.83%2.53%1.84%1.71%3.13%2.11%1.79%1.64%1.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.5312.217.32
Cash Retained (M)46.7446.7446.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.53-12.21-7.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.2134.5439.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.8025.8025.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.051.341.53
LTM Dividend per Share1.971.971.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.051.341.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.033.313.50
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$128.71$238.03$752.68
Upside / Downside100.49%270.76%1,072.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.65103.99110.75117.95125.62133.78137.80
Payout Ratio52.13%59.71%67.28%74.85%82.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.9062.0974.5188.29103.54120.40127.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)56.9657.5058.04
Year 2 PV (M)62.7163.9065.11
Year 3 PV (M)68.1770.1272.12
Year 4 PV (M)73.3476.1679.06
Year 5 PV (M)78.2482.0185.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,662.511,742.811,826.18
Equity Value (M)2,001.912,092.502,186.44
Shares Outstanding (M)25.8025.8025.80
Fair Value$77.59$81.11$84.75
Upside / Downside20.86%26.33%32.00%

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