Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Lennox International Inc. (LII)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$518.73 - $1,274.42$774.20
Multi-Stage$363.01 - $396.55$379.48
Blended Fair Value$576.84
Current Price$529.36
Upside8.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.72%11.79%4.504.313.993.553.323.102.642.241.941.66
YoY Growth--4.50%8.03%12.25%7.11%6.88%17.68%17.82%15.51%16.36%12.74%
Dividend Yield--0.80%0.89%1.59%1.38%1.06%1.71%0.98%1.09%1.16%1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)841.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)643.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)168.28105.1863.11
Cash Retained (M)643.10643.10643.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-168.28-105.18-63.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)474.82537.93580.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.6335.6335.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.3315.1016.28
LTM Dividend per Share5.575.575.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.3315.1016.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.8920.6721.85
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$518.73$774.20$1,274.42
Upside / Downside-2.01%46.25%140.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)841.40896.09954.341,016.371,082.431,152.791,187.37
Payout Ratio23.57%36.85%50.14%63.43%76.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198.30330.25478.51644.65830.371,037.511,098.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)299.19302.03304.87
Year 2 PV (M)392.75400.23407.78
Year 3 PV (M)479.36493.12507.14
Year 4 PV (M)559.40580.91603.04
Year 5 PV (M)633.22663.81695.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,568.3811,078.8411,608.83
Equity Value (M)12,932.3113,518.9414,127.23
Shares Outstanding (M)35.6335.6335.63
Fair Value$363.01$379.48$396.55
Upside / Downside-31.42%-28.31%-25.09%

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