Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.84 - $147.00$86.24
Multi-Stage$39.64 - $43.28$41.43
Blended Fair Value$63.83
Current Price$47.78
Upside33.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.21%25.00%0.310.140.140.000.140.140.140.140.010.00
YoY Growth--118.52%2.53%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-1.23%0.00%1,925.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%0.94%1.70%0.00%2.35%1.33%1.83%1.40%0.05%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,425.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)482.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)943.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)285.00178.13106.88
Cash Retained (M)943.00943.00943.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-285.00-178.13-106.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)658.00764.88836.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)575.92575.92575.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.331.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.331.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.982.172.29
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.84$86.24$147.00
Upside / Downside18.97%80.48%207.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,425.001,517.631,616.271,721.331,833.211,952.372,010.94
Payout Ratio33.82%45.06%56.29%67.53%78.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)482.00683.84909.881,162.411,443.931,757.141,860.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)620.49626.37632.26
Year 2 PV (M)749.12763.39777.79
Year 3 PV (M)868.39893.31918.72
Year 4 PV (M)978.781,016.421,055.14
Year 5 PV (M)1,080.761,132.961,187.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,531.6519,426.7420,356.08
Equity Value (M)22,829.1923,859.1924,927.14
Shares Outstanding (M)575.92575.92575.92
Fair Value$39.64$41.43$43.28
Upside / Downside-17.04%-13.29%-9.41%

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