Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kennametal Inc. (KMT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.93 - $12.94$10.88
Multi-Stage$14.04 - $15.36$14.68
Blended Fair Value$12.78
Current Price$20.93
Upside-38.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.38%0.82%0.800.820.830.860.860.860.850.840.830.82
YoY Growth---2.49%-1.69%-3.07%-0.25%0.65%0.85%0.99%1.52%0.65%11.83%
Dividend Yield--3.82%3.16%3.35%4.18%2.52%2.96%2.76%1.94%2.05%2.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.8611.797.07
Cash Retained (M)32.8932.8932.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.86-11.79-7.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.0321.1125.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77.4577.4577.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.270.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.790.790.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.270.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate-1.18%-0.18%0.82%
Fair Value$8.93$10.88$12.94
Upside / Downside-57.33%-48.03%-38.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94.3094.1393.9793.8093.6493.4796.28
Payout Ratio65.12%70.09%75.07%80.05%85.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.4165.9870.5475.0979.6184.1389.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate-1.18%-0.18%0.82%
Year 1 PV (M)59.6060.2060.80
Year 2 PV (M)57.5558.7259.91
Year 3 PV (M)55.3357.0358.76
Year 4 PV (M)52.9955.1757.42
Year 5 PV (M)50.5853.1955.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)811.00852.87896.45
Equity Value (M)1,087.061,137.191,189.25
Shares Outstanding (M)77.4577.4577.45
Fair Value$14.04$14.68$15.36
Upside / Downside-32.94%-29.85%-26.63%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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