Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Kimberly-Clark de México, S. A. B. de C. V. (KIMBERA.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.94 - $50.32$38.87
Multi-Stage$34.13 - $37.28$35.68
Blended Fair Value$37.27
Current Price$34.40
Upside8.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%2.71%1.871.631.651.731.610.000.001.591.540.75
YoY Growth--14.81%-1.22%-4.78%7.30%0.00%0.00%-100.00%3.62%105.11%-47.61%
Dividend Yield--5.58%4.20%4.34%6.19%4.62%0.00%0.00%4.76%3.79%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,459.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,290.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,169.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,491.97932.48559.49
Cash Retained (M)3,169.413,169.413,169.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,491.97-932.48-559.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,677.442,236.922,609.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,057.783,057.783,057.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.730.85
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.730.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.952.132.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Fair Value$29.94$38.87$50.32
Upside / Downside-12.97%12.99%46.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,459.867,737.388,025.238,323.788,633.448,954.629,223.26
Payout Ratio57.51%64.01%70.51%77.01%83.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,290.454,952.785,658.456,409.777,209.168,059.168,531.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Year 1 PV (M)4,482.884,526.534,570.17
Year 2 PV (M)4,635.694,726.394,817.97
Year 3 PV (M)4,753.014,893.175,036.07
Year 4 PV (M)4,838.595,029.785,226.58
Year 5 PV (M)4,895.905,138.905,391.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)80,770.2884,779.1488,945.63
Equity Value (M)104,376.36109,093.92113,987.87
Shares Outstanding (M)3,057.783,057.783,057.78
Fair Value$34.13$35.68$37.28
Upside / Downside-0.77%3.71%8.37%

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