Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Kingfish Limited (KFL.NZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.87 - $53.18$39.72
Multi-Stage$6.60 - $7.22$6.90
Blended Fair Value$23.31
Current Price$1.33
Upside1,652.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.20%11.98%0.070.070.070.080.060.050.040.040.030.03
YoY Growth--3.61%-6.40%-14.31%33.54%16.08%30.50%6.79%23.21%19.89%16.94%
Dividend Yield--5.43%5.36%5.43%4.78%3.29%4.18%3.02%2.95%2.43%2.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.3611.486.89
Cash Retained (M)56.8856.8856.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.36-11.48-6.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.5245.4049.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)343.33343.33343.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.87$39.72$53.18
Upside / Downside942.78%2,886.73%3,898.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.8197.78104.13110.90118.11125.79129.56
Payout Ratio38.05%48.44%58.83%69.22%79.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.9347.3661.2676.7794.03113.21119.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43.8044.2144.63
Year 2 PV (M)52.3853.3854.39
Year 3 PV (M)60.7062.4464.22
Year 4 PV (M)68.7571.3974.11
Year 5 PV (M)76.5480.2484.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,963.192,058.022,156.47
Equity Value (M)2,265.362,369.682,477.89
Shares Outstanding (M)343.33343.33343.33
Fair Value$6.60$6.90$7.22
Upside / Downside396.10%418.94%442.64%

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