Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Flour Mills Kepenos S.A. (KEPEN.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.35 - $2.23$1.74
Multi-Stage$2.45 - $2.69$2.56
Blended Fair Value$2.15
Current Price$1.73
Upside24.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.80%-11.52%0.050.050.050.590.180.040.030.030.020.03
YoY Growth---0.05%0.03%-92.06%221.71%328.08%54.01%-0.09%21.76%-23.34%-81.27%
Dividend Yield--2.72%2.30%2.20%20.54%8.51%2.44%1.99%1.46%1.28%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)0.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.160.100.06
Cash Retained (M)0.480.480.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.16-0.10-0.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.320.380.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.706.706.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-0.20%0.80%1.80%
Fair Value$1.35$1.74$2.23
Upside / Downside-22.12%0.40%28.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)0.790.800.800.810.820.820.85
Payout Ratio39.82%49.86%59.89%69.93%79.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.310.400.480.570.650.740.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-0.20%0.80%1.80%
Year 1 PV (M)0.370.370.38
Year 2 PV (M)0.410.420.43
Year 3 PV (M)0.450.460.48
Year 4 PV (M)0.480.500.52
Year 5 PV (M)0.510.530.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)14.1614.8915.64
Equity Value (M)16.3917.1818.01
Shares Outstanding (M)6.706.706.70
Fair Value$2.45$2.56$2.69
Upside / Downside41.36%48.22%55.35%

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