Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$123.76 - $208.31$160.78
Multi-Stage$236.13 - $259.50$247.59
Blended Fair Value$204.18
Current Price$181.62
Upside12.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.58%4.29%4.884.854.824.554.324.093.923.693.563.37
YoY Growth--0.45%0.75%5.89%5.26%5.69%4.46%6.16%3.74%5.48%5.21%
Dividend Yield--2.94%3.08%3.07%2.58%2.64%3.08%2.82%2.96%2.85%3.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25,119.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,234.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,885.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,023.803,139.881,883.93
Cash Retained (M)12,885.0012,885.0012,885.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,023.80-3,139.88-1,883.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,861.209,745.1311,001.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,424.652,424.652,424.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.244.024.54
LTM Dividend per Share5.055.055.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.244.024.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.299.069.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-0.20%0.80%1.80%
Fair Value$123.76$160.78$208.31
Upside / Downside-31.86%-11.48%14.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25,119.0025,319.1725,520.9425,724.3225,929.3226,135.9526,920.03
Payout Ratio48.70%56.96%65.22%73.48%81.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,234.0014,422.6516,645.4018,902.6621,194.8423,522.3624,901.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-0.20%0.80%1.80%
Year 1 PV (M)13,410.5613,544.9413,679.32
Year 2 PV (M)14,391.2414,681.1014,973.84
Year 3 PV (M)15,195.9915,657.3916,128.04
Year 4 PV (M)15,843.0316,487.6517,151.74
Year 5 PV (M)16,348.9917,184.6818,054.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)497,340.77522,762.81549,213.96
Equity Value (M)572,530.59600,318.57629,201.11
Shares Outstanding (M)2,424.652,424.652,424.65
Fair Value$236.13$247.59$259.50
Upside / Downside30.01%36.32%42.88%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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