Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.27 - $118.91$81.58
Multi-Stage$45.07 - $49.11$47.05
Blended Fair Value$64.32
Current Price$64.85
Upside-0.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.15%12.53%1.361.251.261.000.720.670.740.530.410.42
YoY Growth--8.75%-0.54%25.72%38.44%7.55%-9.61%41.01%28.60%-1.35%-0.56%
Dividend Yield--2.06%2.99%3.33%2.95%2.52%3.57%4.10%2.59%1.76%2.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)727.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)362.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)365.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)145.5290.9554.57
Cash Retained (M)365.44365.44365.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-145.52-90.95-54.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)219.92274.49310.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)222.68222.68222.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.991.231.40
LTM Dividend per Share1.631.631.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.991.231.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.612.863.02
WACC / Discount Rate10.23%10.23%10.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.27$81.58$118.91
Upside / Downside-10.14%25.79%83.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)727.60774.90825.27878.91936.04996.881,026.79
Payout Ratio49.77%57.82%65.86%73.91%81.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)362.16448.04543.56649.60767.13897.19949.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.23%10.23%10.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)402.64406.45410.27
Year 2 PV (M)438.97447.33455.77
Year 3 PV (M)471.44484.97498.76
Year 4 PV (M)500.31519.55539.34
Year 5 PV (M)525.84551.23577.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,696.538,068.288,454.25
Equity Value (M)10,035.7210,477.8110,935.99
Shares Outstanding (M)222.68222.68222.68
Fair Value$45.07$47.05$49.11
Upside / Downside-30.50%-27.44%-24.27%

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