Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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JDE Peet's N.V. (JDE.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.91 - $34.04$27.52
Multi-Stage$52.12 - $57.31$54.67
Blended Fair Value$41.09
Current Price$24.24
Upside69.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS38.05%0.00%0.690.680.700.360.020.140.181.140.000.00
YoY Growth--0.59%-1.74%96.02%1,500.00%-83.82%-24.44%-84.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.17%2.81%2.58%1.31%0.06%0.38%0.51%3.18%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,150.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)855.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)230.00143.7586.25
Cash Retained (M)295.00295.00295.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-230.00-143.75-86.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.00151.25208.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)495.22495.22495.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.310.42
LTM Dividend per Share1.731.731.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.310.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.862.032.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$21.91$27.52$34.04
Upside / Downside-9.61%13.53%40.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,150.001,138.501,127.121,115.841,104.691,093.641,126.45
Payout Ratio74.35%77.48%80.61%83.74%86.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)855.00882.09908.55934.40959.64984.271,041.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)821.35829.74838.12
Year 2 PV (M)787.74803.90820.23
Year 3 PV (M)754.37777.70801.51
Year 4 PV (M)721.40751.30782.12
Year 5 PV (M)688.98724.85762.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,036.3923,183.8824,378.68
Equity Value (M)25,810.2427,071.3728,382.85
Shares Outstanding (M)495.22495.22495.22
Fair Value$52.12$54.67$57.31
Upside / Downside115.01%125.52%136.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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