Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Johnson Controls International plc (JCI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.03 - $75.44$54.40
Multi-Stage$52.72 - $57.76$55.19
Blended Fair Value$54.79
Current Price$109.95
Upside-50.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.32%4.04%1.491.521.491.391.161.201.401.451.071.39
YoY Growth---2.40%2.04%6.99%20.21%-3.54%-14.13%-3.56%35.90%-23.28%39.27%
Dividend Yield--1.35%1.93%2.59%2.18%1.43%2.58%3.44%4.90%2.80%3.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,721.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)976.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)745.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)344.20215.13129.08
Cash Retained (M)745.00745.00745.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-344.20-215.13-129.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)400.80529.88615.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)656.95656.95656.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.810.94
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.810.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.102.292.42
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Fair Value$40.03$54.40$75.44
Upside / Downside-63.59%-50.53%-31.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,721.001,773.271,827.131,882.621,939.801,998.712,058.67
Payout Ratio56.71%63.37%70.03%76.68%83.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)976.001,123.701,279.481,443.681,616.671,798.841,904.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Year 1 PV (M)1,036.321,046.481,056.64
Year 2 PV (M)1,088.231,109.671,131.31
Year 3 PV (M)1,132.411,166.031,200.31
Year 4 PV (M)1,169.501,216.021,263.92
Year 5 PV (M)1,200.091,260.071,322.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,011.0330,460.7731,967.88
Equity Value (M)34,637.5936,259.0337,942.47
Shares Outstanding (M)656.95656.95656.95
Fair Value$52.72$55.19$57.76
Upside / Downside-52.05%-49.80%-47.47%

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