Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.24 - $172.28$122.39
Multi-Stage$121.09 - $132.91$126.89
Blended Fair Value$124.64
Current Price$62.97
Upside97.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-18.71%3.83%2.082.974.682.944.905.862.482.424.811.92
YoY Growth---29.87%-36.66%59.07%-39.90%-16.41%136.43%2.48%-49.76%151.11%34.17%
Dividend Yield--3.30%3.09%4.70%3.85%6.06%7.94%2.57%3.40%7.20%3.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.208.254.95
Cash Retained (M)48.5148.5148.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.20-8.25-4.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.3140.2643.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.7311.7311.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.013.433.71
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.013.433.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.504.925.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Fair Value$89.24$122.39$172.28
Upside / Downside41.71%94.36%173.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.0067.8769.7971.7673.7975.8878.16
Payout Ratio26.50%39.20%51.90%64.60%77.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.4926.6136.2246.3657.0468.2972.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Year 1 PV (M)24.6324.8725.12
Year 2 PV (M)31.0431.6632.28
Year 3 PV (M)36.7937.8839.00
Year 4 PV (M)41.9043.5745.29
Year 5 PV (M)46.4448.7751.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,239.491,301.561,366.09
Equity Value (M)1,420.301,488.321,558.96
Shares Outstanding (M)11.7311.7311.73
Fair Value$121.09$126.89$132.91
Upside / Downside92.30%101.51%111.08%

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