Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.40 - $18.58$16.00
Multi-Stage$20.14 - $22.08$21.09
Blended Fair Value$18.54
Current Price$22.94
Upside-19.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.83%-1.31%0.820.790.740.680.791.171.081.041.011.00
YoY Growth--3.80%6.90%8.81%-13.91%-32.45%7.85%4.03%2.43%1.30%7.19%
Dividend Yield--5.39%4.78%4.50%2.94%3.12%12.83%5.41%3.24%3.31%3.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,047.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)375.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)672.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)209.58130.9978.59
Cash Retained (M)672.40672.40672.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-209.58-130.99-78.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)462.82541.41593.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)454.13454.13454.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.191.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.191.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.022.13
WACC / Discount Rate10.73%10.73%10.73%
Growth Rate-2.68%-1.68%-0.68%
Fair Value$13.40$16.00$18.58
Upside / Downside-41.60%-30.27%-19.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,047.901,030.271,012.93995.89979.13962.66991.54
Payout Ratio35.83%46.67%57.50%68.33%79.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)375.50480.79582.44680.53775.15866.39917.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.73%10.73%10.73%
Growth Rate-2.68%-1.68%-0.68%
Year 1 PV (M)429.80434.22438.63
Year 2 PV (M)465.44475.05484.77
Year 3 PV (M)486.15501.29516.74
Year 4 PV (M)495.01515.67536.97
Year 5 PV (M)494.60520.54547.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,776.157,131.537,501.66
Equity Value (M)9,147.159,578.2910,026.33
Shares Outstanding (M)454.13454.13454.13
Fair Value$20.14$21.09$22.08
Upside / Downside-12.20%-8.06%-3.76%

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