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Definitive Analysis

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Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$225.10 - $813.91$713.58
Multi-Stage$105.53 - $115.32$110.34
Blended Fair Value$411.96
Current Price$39.07
Upside954.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.83%12.93%1.990.970.630.591.082.421.881.010.720.66
YoY Growth--105.97%54.31%7.00%-45.75%-55.42%28.98%86.05%40.75%9.49%10.90%
Dividend Yield--6.34%3.18%2.86%2.36%5.14%14.03%7.30%4.14%3.76%4.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43,785.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28,257.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,528.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,757.005,473.133,283.88
Cash Retained (M)15,528.0015,528.0015,528.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,757.00-5,473.13-3,283.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,771.0010,054.8812,244.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,698.6010,698.6010,698.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.941.14
LTM Dividend per Share2.642.642.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.941.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.273.583.79
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$225.10$713.58$813.91
Upside / Downside476.16%1,726.40%1,983.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43,785.0046,631.0349,662.0452,890.0756,327.9359,989.2461,788.92
Payout Ratio64.54%69.63%74.72%79.81%84.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28,257.0032,468.5537,108.2142,213.8547,826.4453,990.3257,154.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30,049.8430,334.6730,619.50
Year 2 PV (M)31,785.4632,390.8833,002.02
Year 3 PV (M)33,465.1434,425.8135,404.68
Year 4 PV (M)35,090.1336,439.6037,827.62
Year 5 PV (M)36,661.6538,432.4240,270.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)961,973.081,008,436.741,056,678.68
Equity Value (M)1,129,025.301,180,460.121,233,803.46
Shares Outstanding (M)10,698.6010,698.6010,698.60
Fair Value$105.53$110.34$115.32
Upside / Downside170.11%182.41%195.17%

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