Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk (ISSP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,709.55 - $14,818.54$5,258.18
Multi-Stage$2,153.12 - $2,361.22$2,255.22
Blended Fair Value$3,756.70
Current Price$330.00
Upside1,038.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%22.12%15.006.009.006.000.000.000.001.505.000.00
YoY Growth--150.00%-33.33%50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-70.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--5.73%2.07%3.57%1.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.17%2.25%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)533,854.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105,980.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)427,874.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106,770.8066,731.7540,039.05
Cash Retained (M)427,874.00427,874.00427,874.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-106,770.80-66,731.75-40,039.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)321,103.20361,142.25387,834.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,065.347,065.347,065.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share45.4551.1154.89
LTM Dividend per Share15.0015.0015.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share45.4551.1154.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend60.4566.1169.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate4.01%5.01%6.01%
Fair Value$2,709.55$5,258.18$14,818.54
Upside / Downside721.08%1,493.39%4,390.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)533,854.00560,596.88588,679.42618,168.72649,135.26681,653.04702,102.63
Payout Ratio19.85%33.88%47.91%61.94%75.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105,980.00189,938.61282,042.91382,898.33493,150.48613,487.73649,444.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate4.01%5.01%6.01%
Year 1 PV (M)176,930.56178,631.66180,332.77
Year 2 PV (M)244,734.05249,462.68254,236.54
Year 3 PV (M)309,494.04318,507.05327,693.36
Year 4 PV (M)371,311.07385,798.24400,705.25
Year 5 PV (M)430,282.74451,369.13473,274.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,679,754.3614,350,143.0015,046,560.17
Equity Value (M)15,212,506.8215,933,911.7516,682,802.32
Shares Outstanding (M)7,065.347,065.347,065.34
Fair Value$2,153.12$2,255.22$2,361.22
Upside / Downside552.46%583.40%615.52%

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