Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Jasa Armada Indonesia Tbk (IPCM.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,835.38 - $6,731.10$6,308.03
Multi-Stage$1,016.35 - $1,110.92$1,062.77
Blended Fair Value$3,685.40
Current Price$274.00
Upside1,245.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.92%0.00%18.6117.7420.9513.6114.127.5052.300.0012.625.71
YoY Growth--4.90%-15.32%53.93%-3.60%88.13%-85.65%0.00%-100.00%121.17%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.16%6.47%7.76%4.31%4.71%6.36%13.84%0.00%3.14%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)178,596.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)138,189.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)40,407.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35,719.4022,324.6213,394.77
Cash Retained (M)40,407.1240,407.1240,407.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-35,719.40-22,324.62-13,394.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,687.7218,082.5027,012.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,276.775,276.775,276.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.893.435.12
LTM Dividend per Share26.1926.1926.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.893.435.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend27.0829.6231.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,835.38$6,308.03$6,731.10
Upside / Downside934.81%2,202.20%2,356.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)178,596.98190,205.79202,569.16215,736.16229,759.01244,693.35252,034.15
Payout Ratio77.38%79.90%82.43%84.95%87.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)138,189.86151,974.81166,967.94183,268.08200,981.81220,224.01233,131.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)141,349.52142,689.32144,029.13
Year 2 PV (M)144,437.03147,188.15149,965.22
Year 3 PV (M)147,453.48151,686.34155,999.45
Year 4 PV (M)150,399.95156,183.91162,133.11
Year 5 PV (M)153,277.48160,680.84168,367.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,626,145.934,849,590.515,081,586.84
Equity Value (M)5,363,063.395,608,019.075,862,081.29
Shares Outstanding (M)5,276.775,276.775,276.77
Fair Value$1,016.35$1,062.77$1,110.92
Upside / Downside270.93%287.87%305.45%

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