Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Iluka Resources Limited (ILU.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.63 - $9.32$7.97
Multi-Stage$10.68 - $11.75$11.21
Blended Fair Value$9.59
Current Price$3.80
Upside152.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.58%-2.16%0.080.220.340.130.080.230.250.060.210.18
YoY Growth---65.36%-33.92%164.98%69.94%-67.37%-7.76%331.47%-72.75%15.85%90.19%
Dividend Yield--1.54%3.40%3.56%1.27%1.16%4.96%6.57%1.14%5.85%5.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)462.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)399.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.4257.7634.66
Cash Retained (M)399.00399.00399.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.42-57.76-34.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)306.58341.24364.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.76432.76432.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.790.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.790.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.99
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate-3.02%-2.02%-1.02%
Fair Value$6.63$7.97$9.32
Upside / Downside74.59%109.72%145.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)462.10452.78443.64434.69425.92417.33429.85
Payout Ratio13.66%28.92%44.19%59.46%74.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.10130.96196.06258.48318.30375.60397.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate-3.02%-2.02%-1.02%
Year 1 PV (M)118.41119.63120.85
Year 2 PV (M)160.28163.60166.96
Year 3 PV (M)191.06197.03203.13
Year 4 PV (M)212.73221.64230.83
Year 5 PV (M)226.97238.91251.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,713.543,908.984,112.57
Equity Value (M)4,622.994,849.815,085.70
Shares Outstanding (M)432.76432.76432.76
Fair Value$10.68$11.21$11.75
Upside / Downside181.12%194.91%209.26%

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