Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Insteel Industries, Inc. (IIIN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.15 - $124.41$73.03
Multi-Stage$34.34 - $37.45$35.87
Blended Fair Value$54.45
Current Price$38.49
Upside41.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS56.57%25.69%1.112.602.112.101.600.120.121.091.331.07
YoY Growth---57.28%23.49%0.22%31.53%1,252.96%0.13%-89.17%-17.98%24.70%843.42%
Dividend Yield--2.89%9.45%5.51%7.65%4.02%0.53%0.54%4.54%4.70%2.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.205.133.08
Cash Retained (M)19.2619.2619.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.20-5.13-3.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.0614.1316.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.5619.5619.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.720.83
LTM Dividend per Share1.111.111.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.720.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.841.94
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.15$73.03$124.41
Upside / Downside25.10%89.74%223.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.0243.6946.5349.5552.7756.2057.89
Payout Ratio53.05%60.44%67.83%75.22%82.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.7626.4031.5637.2743.5950.5853.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23.9624.1824.41
Year 2 PV (M)25.9826.4826.98
Year 3 PV (M)27.8428.6429.46
Year 4 PV (M)29.5530.6831.85
Year 5 PV (M)31.1132.6134.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)533.17558.92585.66
Equity Value (M)671.61701.52732.53
Shares Outstanding (M)19.5619.5619.56
Fair Value$34.34$35.87$37.45
Upside / Downside-10.78%-6.81%-2.69%

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