Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$79.90 - $124.04$100.32
Multi-Stage$138.61 - $151.84$145.10
Blended Fair Value$122.71
Current Price$282.16
Upside-56.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.50%3.72%6.506.396.296.216.136.035.995.825.565.18
YoY Growth--1.77%1.55%1.35%1.24%1.58%0.72%2.91%4.76%7.33%14.82%
Dividend Yield--2.61%3.36%4.80%4.77%4.81%5.69%4.38%3.97%3.34%3.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,907.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,227.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,680.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,581.40988.38593.03
Cash Retained (M)1,680.001,680.001,680.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,581.40-988.38-593.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)98.60691.631,086.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)945.85945.85945.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.731.15
LTM Dividend per Share6.586.586.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.731.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.697.317.73
WACC / Discount Rate7.82%7.82%7.82%
Growth Rate-0.50%0.50%1.50%
Fair Value$79.90$100.32$124.04
Upside / Downside-71.68%-64.45%-56.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,907.007,946.267,985.718,025.368,065.218,105.258,348.41
Payout Ratio78.75%81.00%83.25%85.50%87.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,227.006,436.666,648.256,861.787,077.277,294.737,722.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.82%7.82%7.82%
Growth Rate-0.50%0.50%1.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,910.205,969.606,029.00
Year 2 PV (M)5,605.195,718.425,832.79
Year 3 PV (M)5,312.045,473.825,638.85
Year 4 PV (M)5,030.735,236.055,447.59
Year 5 PV (M)4,761.195,005.325,259.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)104,482.72109,839.91115,414.61
Equity Value (M)131,102.07137,243.11143,622.20
Shares Outstanding (M)945.85945.85945.85
Fair Value$138.61$145.10$151.84
Upside / Downside-50.88%-48.58%-46.18%

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