Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.28 - $26.52$22.28
Multi-Stage$30.61 - $33.63$32.09
Blended Fair Value$27.19
Current Price$33.42
Upside-18.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.36%0.00%0.690.650.670.610.510.460.420.360.090.00
YoY Growth--6.38%-3.16%10.22%19.84%9.78%10.97%15.38%298.90%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.28%2.09%2.27%2.08%1.49%3.07%2.24%1.54%0.33%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)159.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)114.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.9119.9411.96
Cash Retained (M)114.12114.12114.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.91-19.94-11.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.2194.18102.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)63.8763.8763.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.291.471.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.291.471.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.002.192.31
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$18.28$22.28$26.52
Upside / Downside-45.30%-33.34%-20.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)159.53157.93156.35154.79153.24151.71156.26
Payout Ratio28.46%40.77%53.08%65.39%77.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.4164.3982.99101.21119.06136.54144.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)58.6359.2359.83
Year 2 PV (M)68.8170.2271.65
Year 3 PV (M)76.4178.7781.18
Year 4 PV (M)81.8585.2488.73
Year 5 PV (M)85.4789.9294.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,583.811,666.281,752.15
Equity Value (M)1,954.972,049.662,148.10
Shares Outstanding (M)63.8763.8763.87
Fair Value$30.61$32.09$33.63
Upside / Downside-8.41%-3.97%0.64%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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