Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HMC Capital Limited (HMC.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$243.36 - $286.72$268.70
Multi-Stage$72.84 - $79.88$76.29
Blended Fair Value$172.49
Current Price$5.10
Upside3,282.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019
DPS84.63%0.00%0.510.110.100.090.100.020.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--357.18%15.91%3.53%-5.09%312.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.94%1.58%1.89%2.05%1.79%0.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)543.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)479.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.7067.9440.76
Cash Retained (M)479.02479.02479.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.70-67.94-40.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)370.31411.08438.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)377.00377.00377.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.981.091.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.981.091.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.33
WACC / Discount Rate5.05%5.05%5.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$243.36$268.70$286.72
Upside / Downside4,671.72%5,168.54%5,521.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)543.52578.85616.47656.54699.22744.67767.01
Payout Ratio11.87%27.49%43.12%58.75%74.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.50159.15265.82385.70520.03670.20709.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.05%5.05%5.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)150.08151.50152.92
Year 2 PV (M)236.39240.89245.44
Year 3 PV (M)323.44332.73342.19
Year 4 PV (M)411.24427.06443.32
Year 5 PV (M)499.79523.93548.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,838.6627,086.6828,382.46
Equity Value (M)27,459.6028,762.7830,115.32
Shares Outstanding (M)377.00377.00377.00
Fair Value$72.84$76.29$79.88
Upside / Downside1,328.18%1,395.96%1,466.31%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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