Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Helvetia Holding AG (HELN.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160.51 - $276.67$210.56
Multi-Stage$286.49 - $314.27$300.11
Blended Fair Value$255.34
Current Price$186.10
Upside37.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.22%7.85%6.656.376.095.525.194.924.724.384.023.90
YoY Growth--4.48%4.56%10.36%6.21%5.60%4.20%7.75%8.91%3.04%24.94%
Dividend Yield--4.45%5.49%5.65%5.14%5.56%3.60%4.11%3.99%3.67%3.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)671.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)514.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)156.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.2483.9050.34
Cash Retained (M)156.95156.95156.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.24-83.90-50.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.7173.05106.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.0153.0153.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.431.382.01
LTM Dividend per Share9.709.709.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.431.382.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.1311.0811.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate0.34%1.34%2.34%
Fair Value$160.51$210.56$276.67
Upside / Downside-13.75%13.14%48.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)671.20680.20689.31698.55707.91717.40738.92
Payout Ratio76.62%79.29%81.97%84.65%87.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)514.25539.35565.03591.30618.17645.66683.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate0.34%1.34%2.34%
Year 1 PV (M)500.62505.61510.60
Year 2 PV (M)486.80496.55506.40
Year 3 PV (M)472.85487.13501.70
Year 4 PV (M)458.85477.42496.54
Year 5 PV (M)444.84467.45490.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,822.5713,474.3814,152.45
Equity Value (M)15,186.5415,908.5516,658.66
Shares Outstanding (M)53.0153.0153.01
Fair Value$286.49$300.11$314.27
Upside / Downside53.95%61.27%68.87%

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