Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A. (GPW.WA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Data & Stock ExchangesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$73.47 - $144.03$101.34
Multi-Stage$102.56 - $112.38$107.38
Blended Fair Value$104.36
Current Price$51.45
Upside102.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.16%9.55%3.002.702.742.502.403.182.202.152.362.40
YoY Growth--11.08%-1.45%9.33%4.46%-24.53%44.52%2.31%-8.92%-1.61%99.17%
Dividend Yield--6.61%6.39%7.62%6.12%5.23%9.21%5.31%5.20%5.31%6.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)189.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.0023.7514.25
Cash Retained (M)64.0764.0764.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.00-23.75-14.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.0740.3249.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.0242.0242.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.961.19
LTM Dividend per Share3.003.003.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.961.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.623.964.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Fair Value$73.47$101.34$144.03
Upside / Downside42.79%96.97%179.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)189.99195.47201.10206.90212.87219.01225.58
Payout Ratio66.28%71.02%75.77%80.51%85.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.92138.82152.37166.58181.48197.11208.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Year 1 PV (M)128.60129.86131.12
Year 2 PV (M)130.75133.33135.94
Year 3 PV (M)132.42136.36140.37
Year 4 PV (M)133.64138.97144.45
Year 5 PV (M)134.46141.19148.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,649.143,831.784,021.65
Equity Value (M)4,309.024,511.484,721.72
Shares Outstanding (M)42.0242.0242.02
Fair Value$102.56$107.38$112.38
Upside / Downside99.33%108.70%118.42%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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