Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.25 - $286.21$99.40
Multi-Stage$33.62 - $36.77$35.17
Blended Fair Value$67.29
Current Price$19.57
Upside243.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.60%0.00%0.400.410.310.310.340.370.370.310.210.16
YoY Growth---0.81%33.70%0.00%-10.51%-8.78%1.53%18.84%45.03%30.63%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.56%1.42%1.20%1.52%1.88%3.07%2.88%2.02%1.66%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)511.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)384.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102.2063.8838.33
Cash Retained (M)384.00384.00384.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-102.20-63.88-38.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)281.80320.13345.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)301.28301.28301.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.941.061.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.941.061.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.481.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.41%6.41%7.41%
Fair Value$55.25$99.40$286.21
Upside / Downside182.32%407.92%1,362.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)511.00543.76578.62615.71655.19697.19718.10
Payout Ratio24.85%37.88%50.91%63.94%76.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.00205.99294.59393.69504.30627.47664.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.41%6.41%7.41%
Year 1 PV (M)188.94190.73192.52
Year 2 PV (M)247.84252.56257.33
Year 3 PV (M)303.80312.53321.43
Year 4 PV (M)356.94370.68384.81
Year 5 PV (M)407.36427.05447.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,625.409,042.379,475.31
Equity Value (M)10,130.2810,595.9311,078.90
Shares Outstanding (M)301.28301.28301.28
Fair Value$33.62$35.17$36.77
Upside / Downside71.82%79.72%87.91%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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