Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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GATX Corporation SR NT 2066 (GMTA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Sector:

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.60 - $88.65$74.80
Multi-Stage$98.72 - $108.48$103.51
Blended Fair Value$89.15
Current Price$25.03
Upside256.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024
DPS0.00%0.00%2.362.252.142.071.980.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--5.21%5.22%3.10%4.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)312.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)246.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.5639.1023.46
Cash Retained (M)246.20246.20246.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.56-39.10-23.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)183.64207.10222.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.8835.8835.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.125.776.21
LTM Dividend per Share1.861.861.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.125.776.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.987.638.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$61.60$74.80$88.65
Upside / Downside146.09%198.83%254.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)312.80309.67306.58303.51300.47297.47306.39
Payout Ratio21.29%35.03%48.77%62.52%76.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.60108.49149.53189.74229.14267.72283.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)98.4499.44100.45
Year 2 PV (M)123.11125.63128.18
Year 3 PV (M)141.74146.12150.60
Year 4 PV (M)155.31161.74168.38
Year 5 PV (M)164.65173.22182.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,858.283,007.123,162.09
Equity Value (M)3,541.523,713.283,891.84
Shares Outstanding (M)35.8835.8835.88
Fair Value$98.72$103.51$108.48
Upside / Downside294.40%313.53%333.41%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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