Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guild Holdings Company (GHLD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - MortgagesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.35 - $28.18$22.93
Multi-Stage$40.05 - $44.09$42.03
Blended Fair Value$32.48
Current Price$19.94
Upside62.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-1.13%0.00%0.490.490.001.940.600.520.640.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.73%0.00%-100.00%225.72%14.36%-18.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.22%3.31%0.00%18.91%4.19%3.47%4.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)126.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.2115.759.45
Cash Retained (M)79.5279.5279.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.21-15.75-9.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.3163.7670.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.4162.4162.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.871.021.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.871.021.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.621.771.87
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$18.35$22.93$28.18
Upside / Downside-7.99%14.99%41.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)126.03124.77123.52122.29121.07119.86123.45
Payout Ratio36.91%47.53%58.14%68.76%79.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.5259.3071.8284.0996.10107.87114.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)55.0555.6156.17
Year 2 PV (M)61.9063.1764.45
Year 3 PV (M)67.2869.3671.48
Year 4 PV (M)71.3874.3477.39
Year 5 PV (M)74.3878.2582.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,169.432,282.392,400.02
Equity Value (M)2,499.422,623.132,751.81
Shares Outstanding (M)62.4162.4162.41
Fair Value$40.05$42.03$44.09
Upside / Downside100.85%110.79%121.13%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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