Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. (GEPA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.54 - $71.31$57.39
Multi-Stage$113.10 - $124.74$118.80
Blended Fair Value$88.10
Current Price$33.90
Upside159.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.79%-0.51%4.870.781.342.941.332.553.263.663.592.02
YoY Growth--522.36%-41.56%-54.45%121.69%-48.07%-21.62%-11.06%2.10%77.84%-60.66%
Dividend Yield--14.75%3.07%5.88%10.49%3.23%6.71%9.17%9.63%10.25%4.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)445.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)365.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.1455.7133.43
Cash Retained (M)365.24365.24365.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.14-55.71-33.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)276.10309.53331.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)94.4394.4394.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.923.283.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.923.283.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.784.134.37
WACC / Discount Rate5.96%5.96%5.96%
Growth Rate-2.16%-1.16%-0.16%
Fair Value$45.54$57.39$71.31
Upside / Downside34.33%69.29%110.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)445.70440.55435.46430.43425.46420.55433.16
Payout Ratio18.05%32.44%46.83%61.22%75.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.46142.92203.93263.52321.69378.49400.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.96%5.96%5.96%
Growth Rate-2.16%-1.16%-0.16%
Year 1 PV (M)133.52134.89136.25
Year 2 PV (M)177.99181.64185.34
Year 3 PV (M)214.86221.52228.31
Year 4 PV (M)245.04255.22265.70
Year 5 PV (M)269.35283.39298.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,639.5510,142.3110,665.84
Equity Value (M)10,680.3111,218.9711,779.46
Shares Outstanding (M)94.4394.4394.43
Fair Value$113.10$118.80$124.74
Upside / Downside233.63%250.45%267.96%

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