Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Global Indemnity Group, LLC (GBLI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.36 - $30.36$24.41
Multi-Stage$48.10 - $52.92$50.46
Blended Fair Value$37.44
Current Price$29.05
Upside28.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.39%0.00%1.381.021.031.031.021.021.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--36.08%-0.82%-0.45%1.26%0.21%1.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.02%3.37%3.64%3.95%3.43%3.98%3.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.583.492.09
Cash Retained (M)8.348.348.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.58-3.49-2.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.764.856.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.0114.0114.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.350.45
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.350.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.591.741.84
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$19.36$24.41$30.36
Upside / Downside-33.37%-15.97%4.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27.9027.6227.3427.0726.8026.5327.33
Payout Ratio70.11%74.09%78.06%82.04%86.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.5620.4621.3522.2123.0523.8825.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)19.1019.2919.49
Year 2 PV (M)18.5918.9719.36
Year 3 PV (M)18.0518.6119.18
Year 4 PV (M)17.4918.2218.96
Year 5 PV (M)16.9117.7918.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)583.68614.07645.72
Equity Value (M)673.82706.96741.42
Shares Outstanding (M)14.0114.0114.01
Fair Value$48.10$50.46$52.92
Upside / Downside65.56%73.70%82.17%

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