Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.64 - $281.59$135.95
Multi-Stage$33.75 - $36.81$35.25
Blended Fair Value$85.60
Current Price$13.69
Upside525.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS21.97%19.89%1.381.270.720.580.520.510.280.270.290.22
YoY Growth--8.88%76.63%23.36%11.56%1.98%81.17%5.97%-7.45%29.02%-0.87%
Dividend Yield--10.11%8.39%4.77%4.43%3.39%3.63%1.53%1.62%1.59%1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)376.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)368.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.3347.0828.25
Cash Retained (M)8.448.448.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.33-47.08-28.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)-66.89-38.64-19.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)266.00266.00266.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.25-0.15-0.07
LTM Dividend per Share1.381.381.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.25-0.15-0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.241.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.47%7.47%7.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.64$135.95$281.59
Upside / Downside342.98%893.03%1,956.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)376.65401.13427.20454.97484.54516.04531.52
Payout Ratio97.76%96.21%94.66%93.10%91.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)368.21385.92404.37423.59443.61464.43491.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.47%7.47%7.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)355.72359.09362.46
Year 2 PV (M)343.56350.11356.71
Year 3 PV (M)331.73341.26350.96
Year 4 PV (M)320.22332.54345.20
Year 5 PV (M)309.02323.95339.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,317.477,670.918,037.87
Equity Value (M)8,977.739,377.859,792.65
Shares Outstanding (M)266.00266.00266.00
Fair Value$33.75$35.25$36.81
Upside / Downside146.53%157.52%168.91%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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