Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

First National Corporation (FXNC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.19 - $126.21$118.28
Multi-Stage$16.86 - $18.41$17.62
Blended Fair Value$67.95
Current Price$22.68
Upside199.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.26%28.00%0.450.400.370.280.220.190.100.070.060.05
YoY Growth--12.29%8.71%32.06%24.81%19.89%80.19%43.81%17.45%21.15%32.75%
Dividend Yield--2.00%2.48%2.32%1.32%1.28%1.24%0.51%0.39%0.44%0.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.140.710.43
Cash Retained (M)0.780.780.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.14-0.71-0.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.360.070.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.019.019.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.19$118.28$126.21
Upside / Downside59.55%421.51%456.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5.726.096.486.907.357.838.07
Payout Ratio86.28%87.03%87.77%88.51%89.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.935.305.696.116.567.057.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4.914.955.00
Year 2 PV (M)4.884.975.07
Year 3 PV (M)4.854.995.13
Year 4 PV (M)4.835.015.20
Year 5 PV (M)4.805.035.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)127.62133.78140.18
Equity Value (M)151.88158.74165.85
Shares Outstanding (M)9.019.019.01
Fair Value$16.86$17.62$18.41
Upside / Downside-25.65%-22.29%-18.81%

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