Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAIO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.91 - $262.36$156.47
Multi-Stage$119.44 - $131.05$125.14
Blended Fair Value$140.80
Current Price$166.86
Upside-15.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.38%4.81%1.181.161.251.151.101.101.070.970.970.35
YoY Growth--1.44%-6.72%8.88%3.91%0.03%2.67%10.52%0.03%175.23%-52.18%
Dividend Yield--1.06%1.72%4.46%5.21%4.58%15.75%7.33%7.14%7.63%4.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)487.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)364.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)97.5960.9936.60
Cash Retained (M)364.88364.88364.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-97.59-60.99-36.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)267.29303.88328.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.95102.95102.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.602.953.19
LTM Dividend per Share1.201.201.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.602.953.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.794.154.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate2.81%3.81%4.81%
Fair Value$103.91$156.47$262.36
Upside / Downside-37.72%-6.23%57.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)487.95506.54525.84545.88566.68588.27605.92
Payout Ratio25.22%38.18%51.13%64.09%77.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.07193.39268.88349.85436.60529.45560.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate2.81%3.81%4.81%
Year 1 PV (M)179.73181.48183.23
Year 2 PV (M)232.25236.79241.37
Year 3 PV (M)280.84289.12297.55
Year 4 PV (M)325.73338.59351.83
Year 5 PV (M)367.11385.31404.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,910.9111,451.9712,014.28
Equity Value (M)12,296.5712,883.2613,492.49
Shares Outstanding (M)102.95102.95102.95
Fair Value$119.44$125.14$131.05
Upside / Downside-28.42%-25.00%-21.46%

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