Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.12 - $270.04$87.82
Multi-Stage$29.14 - $31.83$30.46
Blended Fair Value$59.14
Current Price$14.41
Upside310.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.22%27.50%0.670.670.580.370.340.280.220.160.110.07
YoY Growth---0.03%15.42%56.37%11.21%20.07%26.73%38.32%38.97%61.24%19.99%
Dividend Yield--5.17%5.12%4.62%2.19%2.01%2.41%1.56%1.15%0.80%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.876.794.08
Cash Retained (M)28.8928.8928.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.87-6.79-4.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.0322.1024.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.6537.6537.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.590.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.590.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.12$87.82$270.04
Upside / Downside233.93%509.45%1,773.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.3457.8761.6365.6469.9174.4576.68
Payout Ratio46.83%55.46%64.10%72.73%81.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.4532.1039.5147.7456.8867.0170.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.4329.7129.99
Year 2 PV (M)33.2233.8534.49
Year 3 PV (M)36.8137.8638.94
Year 4 PV (M)40.2141.7643.35
Year 5 PV (M)43.4445.5447.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)913.93958.081,003.91
Equity Value (M)1,097.041,146.801,198.39
Shares Outstanding (M)37.6537.6537.65
Fair Value$29.14$30.46$31.83
Upside / Downside102.20%111.37%120.88%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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