Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$107.09 - $416.38$181.49
Multi-Stage$67.24 - $73.50$70.31
Blended Fair Value$125.90
Current Price$37.88
Upside232.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.53%23.79%0.930.820.740.610.530.500.370.300.220.15
YoY Growth--14.39%9.69%21.12%14.88%8.02%34.93%21.64%36.97%51.33%31.68%
Dividend Yield--2.68%2.57%2.73%1.60%1.22%2.09%1.10%0.83%0.65%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)87.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.4510.906.54
Cash Retained (M)64.1064.1064.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.45-10.90-6.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.6553.2057.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.9623.9623.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.952.222.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.952.222.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.913.193.37
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$107.09$181.49$416.38
Upside / Downside182.72%379.12%999.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)87.2492.9198.95105.38112.23119.52123.11
Payout Ratio26.52%39.22%51.91%64.61%77.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.1436.4451.3768.0986.76107.57113.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)33.3133.6233.94
Year 2 PV (M)42.9243.7444.57
Year 3 PV (M)52.0053.5055.02
Year 4 PV (M)60.5862.9165.30
Year 5 PV (M)68.6671.9775.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,353.561,418.941,486.81
Equity Value (M)1,611.031,684.671,761.06
Shares Outstanding (M)23.9623.9623.96
Fair Value$67.24$70.31$73.50
Upside / Downside77.51%85.62%94.04%

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