Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.64 - $19.42$16.48
Multi-Stage$24.22 - $26.58$25.38
Blended Fair Value$20.93
Current Price$24.83
Upside-15.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.80%-3.65%1.051.051.051.061.071.091.040.993.531.30
YoY Growth--0.11%0.04%-1.15%-0.72%-2.28%5.50%4.89%-72.05%172.18%-14.70%
Dividend Yield--4.29%4.87%5.08%3.80%3.90%6.61%3.91%3.55%11.81%5.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)258.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)131.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)126.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.7732.3519.41
Cash Retained (M)126.89126.89126.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.77-32.35-19.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.1394.54107.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)126.53126.53126.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.750.85
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.750.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.641.791.89
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate-2.80%-1.80%-0.80%
Fair Value$13.64$16.48$19.42
Upside / Downside-45.07%-33.61%-21.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)258.83254.17249.59245.10240.68236.35243.44
Payout Ratio50.97%58.78%66.58%74.39%82.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)131.94149.40166.19182.33197.83212.71225.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate-2.80%-1.80%-0.80%
Year 1 PV (M)135.84137.24138.64
Year 2 PV (M)137.39140.23143.11
Year 3 PV (M)137.05141.33145.69
Year 4 PV (M)135.21140.86146.69
Year 5 PV (M)132.19139.13146.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,387.162,512.512,643.07
Equity Value (M)3,064.843,211.303,363.54
Shares Outstanding (M)126.53126.53126.53
Fair Value$24.22$25.38$26.58
Upside / Downside-2.45%2.21%7.06%

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