Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Future Generation Australia Limited (FGX.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.97 - $42.05$31.41
Multi-Stage$5.29 - $5.78$5.53
Blended Fair Value$18.47
Current Price$1.22
Upside1,414.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162016
DPS11.05%0.00%0.070.060.060.050.050.040.030.030.020.02
YoY Growth--14.18%8.04%13.02%7.91%12.23%19.98%7.26%26.27%33.66%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.43%5.35%4.78%3.48%3.64%3.46%2.86%2.69%2.13%1.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)86.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.2510.786.47
Cash Retained (M)37.7537.7537.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.25-10.78-6.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.5026.9731.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)407.97407.97407.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.97$31.41$42.05
Upside / Downside798.85%2,474.49%3,346.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)86.2691.8797.84104.20110.97118.18121.73
Payout Ratio56.23%62.99%69.74%76.49%83.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.5157.8668.2379.7092.38106.37112.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)53.5154.0154.52
Year 2 PV (M)58.3459.4560.58
Year 3 PV (M)63.0264.8366.67
Year 4 PV (M)67.5470.1472.81
Year 5 PV (M)71.9175.3978.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,844.521,933.612,026.11
Equity Value (M)2,158.842,257.432,359.68
Shares Outstanding (M)407.97407.97407.97
Fair Value$5.29$5.53$5.78
Upside / Downside333.74%353.55%374.09%

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