Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

American Funds Retirement Income Portfolio - Moderate Class F-1 (FBFWX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset Management - IncomeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.19 - $32.45$24.98
Multi-Stage$32.00 - $35.06$33.50
Blended Fair Value$29.24
Current Price$13.38
Upside118.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.08%2.08%1.201.201.010.200.301.201.351.191.191.19
YoY Growth--0.04%19.34%398.51%-32.38%-75.05%-11.68%13.46%0.02%0.15%21.93%
Dividend Yield--9.42%9.92%8.83%1.60%2.41%11.43%12.08%10.84%11.05%11.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,151.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,513.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)637.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)630.20393.88236.33
Cash Retained (M)637.46637.46637.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-630.20-393.88-236.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.26243.59401.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,997.751,997.751,997.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.120.20
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.120.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.261.381.46
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate0.53%1.53%2.53%
Fair Value$19.19$24.98$32.45
Upside / Downside43.43%86.69%142.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,151.003,199.253,248.233,297.973,348.463,399.733,501.73
Payout Ratio79.77%81.82%83.86%85.91%87.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,513.542,617.482,724.022,833.212,945.103,059.763,239.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate0.53%1.53%2.53%
Year 1 PV (M)2,418.972,443.032,467.09
Year 2 PV (M)2,326.502,373.012,419.98
Year 3 PV (M)2,236.232,303.632,372.37
Year 4 PV (M)2,148.252,235.002,324.37
Year 5 PV (M)2,062.612,167.252,276.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,729.1255,404.3458,187.06
Equity Value (M)63,921.6666,926.2670,046.97
Shares Outstanding (M)1,997.751,997.751,997.75
Fair Value$32.00$33.50$35.06
Upside / Downside139.14%150.38%162.05%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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